A spreadsheet gives you the win rate. That number isn’t wrong, it’s incomplete: it doesn’t say how far your real win rate could sit from it, so a good week and a setup that works look the same. Here is one example log, 27 wins out of 40 decided trades, read both ways.
| Session | Spreadsheet: win rate | Voltrade: the same win rate, with its 95% band |
|---|---|---|
| London10 wins of 14 decided | 71.4% | Between 45.4% and 88.3%. 6 more decided trades before a verdict. |
| NY AM11 wins of 16 decided | 68.8% | Between 44.4% and 85.8%. 4 more decided trades before a verdict. |
| NY PM4 wins of 7 decided | 57.1% | Between 25.0% and 84.2%. 13 more decided trades before a verdict. |
| Asia2 wins of 3 decided | 66.7% | Between 20.8% and 93.9%. 17 more decided trades before a verdict. |
| All sessions27 wins of 40 decided | 67.5% | Between 52.0% and 79.9%. |
London is your best session, with a win rate of 71.4%. NY PM is your worst, at 57.1%. Trade more of the first, less of the second.
It prints 66.7% for Asia, 2 wins out of 3, in the same type as every other figure. The formula doesn’t know how many trades stand behind it.
I don’t know yet. No session has 20 decided trades, so there is no best or worst session to name. The 4 bands above overlap each other from end to end.
Across all 40 trades it can say more: a win rate of 67.5% that sits somewhere between 52.0% and 79.9%. To size risk it works from the cautious end of that band, a loss rate of 48.0%, and plans for 5 losses in a row within the next 100 trades.
Yes. The band is the Wilson score interval, one formula you can write in a cell. If you already do, you don’t need this page.
What a spreadsheet won’t do by itself is hold back. It ranks 4 sessions on 14, 16, 7, 3 trades as if the ranking meant something, and it will keep doing that until someone adds the column that says it doesn’t. Voltrade draws the band around your win rate and around each session’s, and below 20 decided trades it says it doesn’t know yet and counts how many are missing.